TWIG #394: Playtika's Solitaire Meltdown, the AppLovin-AdMob Duopoly and Why Nobody Wants New Games

The crew breaks down Sensor Tower's big H1 2026 report, digs into why downloads keep falling while nobody seems to want new games, and asks whether ad revenue was ever going to save anyone. Plus a Warframe live service masterclass and the arrow craze that Kress would very much like everyone to stop talking about.Topics Covered:• Disney Solitaire cannibalizing Solitaire Grand Harvest • Where the diligence went on the SuperPlay deal and who is left • Washington State suing Playtika and Aristocrat over social casino• Sensor Tower H1 2026 with downloads down 12% • The 4X surge stalling out while puzzle keeps compounding• The D2C debate and whether the market ishealthier than it looks• AppLovin and AdMob running two-thirds of gaming ad revenue and what that consolidation does to CPIs• Why the top ad revenue games are smaller than anyone expected• Warframe as the live service masterclass Destiny never pulled offCHAPTERS:00:00 – Intro & welcome (Jen, Kress, Phil, Mishka)01:00 – Mishka's Greece trip & DoF event updates (Seattle Roundtables, Gamescom, Grand Slam, Supper Club)08:00 – Playtika update: Solitaire Grand Harvest cannibalized by Disney Solitaire12:00 – M&A Masterclass callback (Chris Petrarca) & licensing math on Disney deal14:00 – Washington State's gambling lawsuit vs. Playtika — social casino legal risk17:00 – Sensor Tower H1 2026 report: overview & app discovery is "broken"20:00 – Direct-to-consumer (D2C) web shops: how big is the impact really?23:00 – D2C by genre: 4X, social casino, Marvel Strike Force example25:00 – Genre trends: strategy down, puzzle up, Block Blast highlight26:00 – The "Arrow" hyper-casual craze — Block Blast install decline29:00 – UA costs spiking: ad spend up, downloads down30:00 – AppLovin & AdMob's growing duopoly over UA33:00 – Social casino's steepest genre decline & D2C revenue shift36:00 – Top publishers by ad revenue (King, Easy Brain, Huuuge)39:00 – Sensor Tower report wrap-up & praise42:00 – Warframe/Digital Extremes: Destiny comparison & live-service execution44:00 – Warframe monetization model breakdown45:00 – Digital Extremes' mobile SKU built with Finland's Nitro Games46:00 – Warframe mobile growth numbers (PC halo effect)48:00 – Squad RPG/gacha mechanics critique — mobile "solved this years ago"50:00 – Why no Western studio has cracked mobile shooters (Fortnite, Roblox Rivals)51:00 – Warframe's marketing-driven themed content drops52:00 – Shoutout: Christopher Dring's podcast52:00 – Outro & next week preview (Castle Clashers, Capcom)