Podcast | Future Russia: The Pattern Ukraine Must End

This is about Future Russia. Now is the time to think about Future Russia.Current Russia has one choice left that does not end in losing everything. It can accept that the world will settle for nothing less than its withdrawal from all of Ukraine, every village of Ukraine, Crimea included. Russia has shown no sign of making this choice. I contend it will not make this choice in time.“We need to understand the distinction between Historical Russia and Real Russia today. Historical Russia is often disguised. It comes through the words and the writings of journalists, or of Western so-called experts. It comes through Russians themselves, and propagandists, and Disinfolklorists.So in the future, as soon as it raises its head, we must have the analytical capacity to see the Mana, to see the energy, of either Historical Russia or Real Russia.”Ukraine’s war aimsUkraine’s plan does not depend on Russia choosing well from its perspective.In February 2024, Kyrylo Budanov, then head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, set out Ukraine’s conditions for ending the war. Ukraine should destroy Russia’s rear: its oil and fuel bases, the plants producing its weapons and ammunition, and its other strategic targets. Ukraine should take back all its territory before peace talks begin. In his words, Ukraine “will be able to feel secure only after all Russian war criminals are prosecuted, [Russia’s] nuclear weapons are destroyed, and [Russia’s] nuclear power plants are controlled by international organisations.”I called those Ukraine’s war aims: destroy Russia’s capacity to wage war, permanently.I wrote then that Budanov gets it. I wrote that this is a once-in-a-millennium chance for Ukraine, and for all of us. That includes Russians who understand what the Real Russia is, and how their future can be built only on the Real Russia, not the Historical Russia. Any chatter, I wrote then, about “peace” should be filtered through this prism.General Budanov had already said in October 2022: “As soon as the Russian regime collapses, it will all fall apart.”Future RussiaThis is what I expect. Current Russia goes on losing until it has lost almost everything. Future Russia is the state of Moscow and St Petersburg.The rest of today’s Ruschist Federation becomes a whole plethora of sovereign states. Their independence is watched over for a time by Europe, the United States, China, the powers of Asia. Each of these future states must adhere to a Real policy, not an Historical policy. That is a condition of receiving the aid they will need to sustain themselves as sovereign independent states.The map already holds the outline. Within its internationally recognised borders, the Ruschist Federation counts 83 federal subjects. These are the regions, republics and cities that make it up. Twenty-one of them are republics. Most are named for people who are not Russian.As I wrote in 2022, “Russia’s self-image as an eternal monolith masks its continuing colonial legacy.”Muscovy was a village when Kyiv was already a city. Muscovy has never had a decolonisation moment. There was no Frantz Fanon in Moscow, and no Sartre. Future Russia is what the decolonisation looks like when it finally comes.Two Russias inside Future RussiaThe current Ruschist state dissolves and splinters. It leaves a remnant based around St Petersburg and Moscow. Even then, however, the Russia problem will not have been solved. A state of Moscow and St Petersburg can still be the old empire in a smaller coat.Inside Future Russia, two Russias will argue over the country. The rest of us need to know, from the first day, which one is speaking.One is Historical Russia. The other is Real Russia.The purpose of this is to explain to you the difference. Understanding this difference can help us cut through debates today, rhetoric today, and what I call, in other projects, Disinfolklore today.One is Historical Russia. The other is Real Russia. They cannot share one country. For 30 years, plenty of Russians, plenty of Western experts thought the Russia of the doctrine of Russkiy Mir and the Russia of the map could get along. Indeed, they thought they could even help each other.They cannot. Sooner or later, one devours the other. The Real Russia devours the Historical Russia. Or, as is occurring today, the Historical Russia is devouring itself.The harde