Commodity Week: Daily Summaries Delivered

Jul 23 | Commodity Week

The July 23 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features agricultural market analysis from panelists Greg Johnson, Dave Chatterton, Curt Kimmel, and emeritus guest Wayne Nelson. The central theme of the program revolves around recent price rallies in the grain markets, with soybeans reaching the $12 range and corn nearing $5. The panelists strongly encourage farmers to focus on securing profitability through incremental, scale-up sales rather than trying to perfectly time the absolute top of the market. Key drivers of these market dynamics include highly variable Midwestern crop conditions—stemming from a wet planting season and localized dry spells—alongside significant global factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, a European drought, the South American El Niño, and the unpredictable nature of Chinese agricultural demand. The episode concludes on a sentimental note as Curt Kimmel announces his retirement at the end of the month, prompting fond farewells and reflections on his long career from his colleagues.Panelists- Dave Chatterton, SFMarketing.com- Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Wayne Nelson, WILLAg Emeritus ★ Support this podcast ★

Jul 16 | Commodity Week

The July 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting (NAFB) Summer Showcase in Kansas City, Missouri, features agricultural analysts Mike Zuzolo of GlobalCommResearch.com and Arlan Suderman of StoneX. The program delves into deep macroeconomic and geopolitical parallels between the current market environment and the 1980s, highlighting how shifts in Chinese demand and escalating global conflicts, particularly new drone-driven disruptions in the Black Sea, are altering international grain and energy trade. The panel examines the operational complexities of domestic biofuel policies, such as the 45Z tax credit and RVO programs, noting that while soybean crushing remains robust, older biomass diesel plants are facing maintenance and cash flow limitations due to delayed regulatory guidelines. Looking ahead to the fall harvest, the experts advise grain producers to carefully monitor regional basis swings, look past short-term fund-driven market volatility, and proactively manage risk by securing early pricing protections.Panelists - Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting - Arlan Suderman, StoneX ★ Support this podcast ★

Jul 09 | a note from Todd

Jul 02 | Commodity Week

In the July 2 edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and panelists Shane Holtorf, Naomi Blohm, and Matt Bennett review regional disparities in crop conditions, highlighting strong growth in Iowa and Wisconsin against waterlogged, disease-threatened fields in East Central Illinois. Analyzing the USDA Grain Stocks report, the panel notes that while a brief market rally occurred, old crop corn stocks remain near an eight-year high, advising producers to sell before seasonal pressure mounts. New crop corn carryout is projected between 1.80 and 1.90 billion bushels, with prices likely to test harvest lows unless major weather disruptions occur or WASDE reports introduce bullish data. Similarly, despite current resilience driven by strong domestic crush margins, the soybean market faces significant downside risk and technical selling pressure without immediate new crop purchases from China.Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Windsor, IL - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - West Bend, WI - Shane Holtorf, LogicAg.com - Alta, IA ★ Support this podcast ★

Jun 25 | Commodity Week

The June 25 edition of Commodity Week featured analysis from Arlan Suderman of StoneX, Curt Kimmel of AgMarket .net, and Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing. The panel evaluated the impending June 30 USDA acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports, noting that these figures, alongside developing weather patterns, will establish the primary direction for the markets. Expectations for corn acreage generally reflect a slight decrease from March intentions, while soybean acreage is anticipated to be marginally higher.Weather remains a dominant factor as the corn crop approaches its critical July pollination window. Elevated temperatures will accelerate growing degree days, but sustained heat combined with high overnight temperatures could negatively impact final yields. The panel also highlighted specific agronomic risks moving into the latter half of the summer. These include the eastward drift of smoke from western wildfires and the potential for southern mold spores to increase disease pressure, making fungicide application decisions crucial for producers this season (CropProtectionNetwork.org).Significant uncertainty persists regarding international trade commitments on the demand side. The market is closely monitoring China's purchasing pace to determine if the nation will meet its stated targets by the end of the calendar year. Additionally, potential agricultural shipments to Iran, facilitated by the use of frozen assets, represent another unresolved variable that could substantially tighten the overall balance sheet. Until these international demand factors and late-season weather impacts are clarified, producers are exhibiting notable reluctance to make new crop sales at current price levels.Panelists - Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Arlan Suderman, StoneX ★ Support this podcast ★

Jun 18 | Commodity Week

The June 18, 2026, Commodity Week panel analyzed current agricultural market fundamentals, prioritizing export demand, domestic crop conditions, and macroeconomic shifts. China recently purchased 4.8 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, yet long-term fulfillment of their 25-million-metric-ton commitment remains uncertain pending tariff adjustments and sustained export competition from Brazil. Domestically, the market is bracing for upcoming USDA acreage and grain stocks reports, with analysts anticipating slight increases in soybean acreage and noting discrepancies in feed and residual data driven by heavier cattle slaughter weights. The recent Cattle on Feed report indicated a 102% year-over-year inventory, though overall beef production projections remain inexplicably low according to the panel. Furthermore, U.S. corn crop conditions vary drastically based on planting dates, with early-planted corn thriving while late-planted fields struggle against excessive moisture. Finally, macroeconomic volatility is expected to persist as the new Federal Reserve leadership implements a strictly data-driven policy approach, strengthening the U.S. dollar and emphasizing the need for producers to actively execute pricing orders amidst shifting fundamentals.Panelists - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Jun 11 | Commodity Week

The June 11, 2026 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, evaluated the contrasting environmental and structural shifts altering the global agricultural landscape. Ellen Dearden highlighted severe weather disparities across the US Midwest, where central Illinois recently faced excessive rain and wind damage, while portions of South Dakota and Nebraska continue to suffer from severe drought and expanding wildfires. Ted Seifried analyzed the subtle domestic demand adjustments and global production updates in the June USDA WASDE report, noting that while US ending stocks remained relatively flat, surprise production increases for corn crops in Brazil and Argentina present long-term competitive threats to US exports.The panelists further scrutinized fund flows and international demand dynamics, emphasizing that the recent market slide is heavily driven by index funds liquidating historic long positions as previous alternative energy and fertilizer supply narratives lose momentum. This speculative exit coincides with stagnant buying activity from China, which continues to meet its immediate processing needs through cheaper, high-volume South American soybean supplies rather than turning to the US. Consequently, Matt Darragh projected that the US may only realize about half of the USDA's targeted 25 million metric ton export volume to China for the 2026–2027 marketing year, reflecting the global pricing edge and storage advantages held by Brazil and Argentina. Additionally, the panel briefly addressed the risk of the New World screwworm, noting that its spread is primarily a hazard tied to livestock transportation patterns rather than simple fly migration.On the global front, Darragh shared insights from Kpler regarding the softening wheat and fertilizer sectors. Global wheat contracts continue to face downward pressure from high carryover stocks and intense export competition out of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, though looming El Niño conditions could severely penalize Australian crop yields later in the season. Meanwhile, critical supply chain vulnerabilities persist in the fertilizer sector, where 37 vessels laden with roughly 2 million tons of fertilizer products remain bottlenecked in the Middle East Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. While down from a peak of 50 vessels in May, these ongoing logistical constraints and export limits from major producers threaten to trigger a delayed, severe impact on global crop production extending into the 2027–2028 marketing year.Panelists- Matt Darragh, Kpler - Birmingham, UK- Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Morton, IL- Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge - Chicago, IL ★ Support this podcast ★

Jun 04 | Commodity Week

In the June 4 edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and panelists Logan Kimmel, Sherman Newlin, and Shane Holtorf analyze the recent, severe sell-offs across the agricultural grain markets. The discussion highlights a 12-day consecutive drop in wheat futures—exacerbated by fund liquidations and crude oil market trends—that consequently dragged down corn and soybean prices. While domestic crush capacity provides a baseline of support for soybeans, the panel emphasizes that renewed export demand from China is critical for a sustained price recovery. Looking ahead to the late June acreage report and the potential for summer weather volatility, the analysts caution producers against liquidating grain at current lows. Instead, they recommend establishing calculated, profitable price targets for both old and new crop inventory and keeping working orders actively placed with buyers to capture any sudden market bounces. Finally, the panel notes rising volatility in the livestock sector due to screwworm headlines, urging cattle and hog producers to aggressively manage their downside risk.Panelists- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag- Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag ★ Support this podcast ★