
Free Daily Podcast Summary
by The Hammer Betting Network
Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter.
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A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins Jacob Gramegna for the very first episode of Off Script to break down algorithmic decision-making versus human intuition using live betting, prediction markets, and expected value examples. They then move into two major current events: the proposed repeal of the 90% gambling loss deduction cap, and the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and MLS's new push for permanent bans on bettors who threaten athletes and their families. Plus viewer questions on odds screens, AI's impact on sharp bettors, and this week's plus EV move of the week. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Shipper - https://x.com/ShipTheJustice OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Work In Progress Check 11:34 - 90% Loss Cap Repeal 16:38 - Major Sports Leagues Crack Down On Harassment 23:11 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions 30:44 - What Grinds My Gears 35:56 - +EV Moves Of The Week Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #OffScript #CirclesOff #CollegeFootball #CFPPlayoff #ExpectedValue #SportsBettingPodcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker at all. Pro sports bettor and trader Porter of BA Analytics joins Circles Off to break down what the proposal actually changes, why the fee and positioning rules matter more than they might look on paper, and what tighter competition among market makers could mean for pricing and liquidity on these markets going forward. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Porter - https://x.com/BAanalytics_ 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #CFTC #PredictionMarkets #MarketMaking #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #BettingIndustry #SportsBettingNews #BettingRegulation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney has sparked its own conversation about how brands are approaching this space. Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg, part of the Circles Off lineup from The Hammer Betting Network. Circle Back airs weekly, breaking down the biggest stories in sports betting, prediction markets, and the NFL with sharp analysis and no shortage of debate. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days 🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117 🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D 📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg 1:32 - NFL Week 1 Recap 7:35 - Survivor Chaos, Chargers lose 22:27 - LA Rams Reality Check 35:41 - U.S. Open + Texas Comeback vs. Ohio State 45:55 - Is The NFL Admitting Defeat To Prediction Markets? 52:27 - Sydney Sweeney's Prediction Market Ad Campaign 1:06:59 - Odds Logic's Poorly Timed Price Increase 1:16:18 - Chopping Block Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFL #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #NFLWeek1 #LARams #49ers #RogerGoodell #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off to break down how a market this size actually moves — why $500,000 walls formed around teams like Miami and Minnesota, and how a trader decides whether to jump a wall or wait it out. The conversation gets into steam versus noise — how a single tweet or Sportscenter hit could send a team surging with zero new information behind it — and why LeBron's notoriously tight-lipped camp made this market especially hard to read. Peanut closes with the biggest lesson from trading it: how the market's long, drawn-out timeline changed the entire approach compared to a decision expected to drop quickly. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/46xNSOo LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Peanut - https://x.com/Peanut_Bettor OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #ProphetX #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #NBA #LeBronNextTeam #BettingMarkets #TradingStrategy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - The Misconception 1:07 - I Am One of the Spreadsheet Guys 2:45 - Millions of Angles, We Test One 5:07 - Quantify Everything 5:58 - The Market Knew Something I Didn't 8:39 - Motivation in Golf 10:00 - Defining Revenge (For Real) 11:31 - 3,000 Revenge Games 13:18 - The Bounce Back 15:32 - Does It Still Work? 16:55 - Watching an Angle Die 19:55 - The Small Sample Trap 21:08 - The Million Dollar Catch 23:24 - Sponsored by ProphetX 24:42 - Refusing to Guess 25:21 - What Should We Test Next? Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #NFLBetting #SharpBetting #BettingStrategy #NFLAnalytics #ClosingLineValue #BettingEdge #NFLDataAnalysis #ProphetX #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through how to spot the trigger, which players are most likely to give up a set, and how the same logic applies well beyond tennis, including a similar spot to watch for in baseball. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #TennisBetting #LiveBetting #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at how legalization, lazy odds-making, and old school leg work created a window that most people never even noticed. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna 🔵 Follow China - https://x.com/chinamaniac OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. #SportsBetting #CollegeFootball #LegendaryLoopholes #PlayerProps #BettingEdge #CirclesOff #TheHammer #ProphetX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama. Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm Buonatony on sports media salaries, the latest GRP saga, and another edition of the Chopping Block. Drop your questions in the chat! Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network. 🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos! 🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW LINKS 🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer ✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/ 🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/ SOCIALS 🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ ⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq 🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/ FOLLOW 🔵 Follow GStack- https://x.com/GeorgeTsilfidis 🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola 🔵 Follow Geoff - https://x.com/gfienberg17 OUR OTHER CHANNELS 🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ 🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ 📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ SHOW INDEX 0:00 - Intro To Circle Back5:03 - Aaron Donald Returns to the NFL19:39 - Josh Jacobs' place on the commissioner's list21:31 - NFL Fantasy League Blow-up38:27 - Reactions to the Fake NFL player49:42 - CFB Week 0 Bad Beat 56:11 - Court Ruling w/ Prediction Markets01:02:55 - Pros aren't sharing their picks01:16:02 - Starting a career in sports01:31:15 - GRP gone wild Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions. Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter.
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