Forecasting the Future of the Axis of Upheaval: The View from Moscow

Today’s episode of Brussels Sprouts comes from a virtual panel discussion that the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) held on July 14 to mark the release of a report titled Forecasting the Future of the Axis of Upheaval: The View from Moscow. The report assesses the future of the “axis of upheaval,” or the deepening relationships among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, from Moscow’s perspective. The report is set amid growing doubts about Russia’s ability to support its partners abroad in Syria, Venezuela, and Armenia amid the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. Yet while Russia did little to help Iran during 12 days of punishing strikes from Israel and the United States in 2025, Russia provided more tangible support for Iran this year. These incidents raise important questions. How does Russia view its relationships with China, North Korea, and Iran? How far would Russia be willing to go to support its partners? What are the factors that drive its cooperation, and what are the limits Joining Andrea Kendall-Taylor on the panel to address all these questions are three distinguished experts: Nicole Grajewski, Marcin Kaczmarski, and Kadri Liik. Nicole Grajewski is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a tenure-track assistant professor at Sciences Po in Paris. Marcin Kaczmarski is a lecturer of Central and East European studies in the School of Social & Political Sciences at the University of Glasgow. Kadri Liik is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe and was previously the first director of Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security.