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Broken Pie Chart: Daily Summaries Delivered
by Derek Moore
The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.
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- Today45 min
Jensen Huang Nvidia Problem | Oil & Rates Come Down | Semiconductors Ex-Nvidia Best 2-day Gain Since Tariff Tantrum | CPI Monthly But no YoY
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner after the S&P 500 Index has a monster 2.5% gain while Semiconductors despite NVDA declining have the 36th best 2-day gain ever. Speaking of Nvidia, volatility and uncertainty surrounding the Jensen Huang issue. Plus, oil and rates drop and what that means for markets. Later, CPI will report monthly numbers but non year over year due to government shutdown last October where no CPI numbers were published. Finally, looking at individual sectors for what's going well and what's no. Bespoke points out the SOX Index had its 36th best 2-day gain ever Jensen Huang CEO succession plan? Reports say Nvidia's board is doing an investigation Nvidia situation creates options volatility and uncertainty WTI Oil contracts breach 90 and settle below 87. Is 70 next? Why CPI report will not include a YoY (Year over Year) number Sector spyder round up Rates and the 10 YR yield breaches 4.9% Reviewing historical spread of the 10 year treasury to 30-year mortgage rates This is why you invest in indexes Imagine you know rates would stay high, would anyone have thought homebuilders wouldn't crash? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- 5 days ago39 min
AI Bubble Searches Spike | S&P 500 Range Narrows | Best Six Months Begin? | 35% Earnings Growth | Mega-Cap Tech Drag
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner for episode 401 to ask whether the record spike in Google searches for "AI bubble" is a warning sign or a contrarian signal. Then, despite the nervousness, the S&P 500's three-month trading range has compressed to roughly 3.5%, narrower than 99% of history. Plus, we're leaving the historically worst six months and entering the best, S&P 500 earnings on pace to grow 35% this year and 15% in 2027, and why the index is down 3.1% from its October 6th high while the market beneath the surface is stronger than the headline suggests. Plus, the Fear & Greed Index, Apple options pricing, and the earnings calendar. All this and more this week. Google searches for "AI bubble" hit more than double their prior all-time high S&P 500 three-month trading range compresses to ~3.5%, narrower than 99% of history S&P 500 63-day closing range of 4.40% today vs. a historical median of 9.72% The best six months begin: S&P 500 returns from November through April since 1950 Sell in May? Average S&P 500 returns and % higher for every 6-month period S&P 500 earnings on pace to grow 35% in 2026 and another 15% in 2027 55% earnings growth in two years, unprecedented this late in an economic cycle S&P 500 down 3.1% since its most recent all-time closing high on Oct. 6th Mega-cap tech cost the S&P 500 3.0 pts in October while all other stocks added 2.1 CNN Fear & Greed Index moves up to Neutral after a month in Fear Apple Nov. 4th options: the $337.50 straddle prices in roughly a 4.4% move Earnings calendar for the week of Nov. 2nd: Palantir, Shopify, McKesson and more Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- 2 weeks ago1h 6m
SpaceX vs. Tesla Merger Talk | VIX Fear and Forward Returns | Volatility Is Normal | Midterm Years: 19 for 19 | Hyperscaler Capex vs. Free Cash Flow
Derek Moore is joined by Jay Pestrichelli for episode 400 to debate SpaceX's and Tesla potential merger after Jim Chanos questioned Tesla's 5% ROIC at a $1.5T price asking if SpaceX shareholders really want to pay for Tesla. Plus a SpaceX vs. Tesla comparison on 2029 earnings and P/Es. Then, is this volatility normal? A look at 1% down days, drawdowns, intra-year pullbacks, and what the VIX has historically meant for forward S&P 500 returns. What if you only invested at market tops? Plus, bull and bear market history, AAII sentiment, hyperscaler capex vs. free cash flow, why the S&P 500 is 19 for 19 from midterms to the following June, investing by political party, the cost of missing the best days, and breakeven inflation. All this and more this week. Jim Chanos questions buying SpaceX's 5% ROIC business at a $1.5T valuation SpaceX vs. Tesla: 2029 P/E of 15.0x for SPCX vs. 68.5x for TSLA S&P 500 forward 6-month returns when a top-5 stock trades below 16x forward P/E Total number of 1% down days in the S&P 500 by year since 1990 Number of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% S&P 500 drawdowns since 1950 S&P 500 annual returns vs. largest intra-year drawdowns since 1990 Number of 3% intra-year pullbacks in the S&P 500 each year since 1990 VIX daily high over the past two years Forward 6-month S&P 500 returns by starting VIX level Forward 1-month S&P 500 returns after the VIX crosses above 20 and 30 Annualized S&P 500 return if you only invested at bull market peaks Percent gain and loss of every S&P 500 bull and bear market since 1949 Length of historical bull markets vs. the current bull market AAII sentiment survey: bullish less bearish spread since 1988 Hyperscaler capex vs. free cash flow: Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Microsoft 19 for 19: S&P 500 up from every midterm election to the next June since 1950 2026 S&P 500 path vs. the average midterm year path Growth of $1 in the S&P 500 under Democrat vs. Republican presidents S&P 500 return of 8.4% fully invested vs. -12.0% missing the best 10 days a year 5-year breakeven inflation at 2.45% and 10-year breakeven at 2.32% Earnings calendar for the week of Oct 26th: Microsoft, Alphabet, Exxon and more Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- 3 weeks ago1h 5m
Expected Q3 Earnings Growth of 27.2% | Forward P/Es: Poor Short-Term, Solid Long-Term Predictor | Vanguard's 2019 Decade Ahead Forecast vs. Reality | Big Tech Capex vs. Free Cash Flow | SpaceX Options Volatility
Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They're a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 years, plus a look back at Vanguard's 2019 10-year return forecasts vs. the S&P 500's +15.22% decade-to-date annualized return. Plus, big tech capex vs. free cash flow, high-yield and CCC credit spreads, and SpaceX options volatility. All this and more this week. Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. down year of -11.8% since 1950 Citadel: Expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of 27.2%, led by Micron and Nvidia S&P 500 sector forward P/E ratios vs. their 10-year averages Forward P/E ratios are a poor predictor of 1-year forward returns Forward P/E ratios are a solid predictor of 10-year annualized returns Vanguard 2019 outlook: 10-year median return forecast of 4.9% for a 60/40 portfolio S&P 500 decade-to-date annualized return of +15.22% vs. Vanguard's 6.1% estimate Bloomberg: Revenue, capex, and free cash flow for Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta FRED: ICE BofA high yield and CCC & lower option-adjusted spreads Bloomberg: High-yield spreads at 3.31% vs. 2008 high of 17.22% and 2021 low of 2.28% Bloomberg: BCAUOAS spread index at 10.62% vs. its long-term average of 8.91% SpaceX (SPCX) trades at $147.22 with at-the-money options implying ~104% volatility SpaceX expected move based on implied volatility through earnings Mentioned in this Episode Signup for ZEGA's Economic and Market Outlook Wednesday Oct 21st https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_eRKqLJ-OQuCdAdizLYHq7Q?utm_medium=email&_hsmi=2&utm_content=2&utm_source=hs_email#/registration Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- 4 weeks ago57 min
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.31% | Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record | Earnings Drive Returns as P/E Multiples Shrink | Dotcom Bubble vs. Today | Hidden Volatility in the Magnificent 7
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today's leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.31% per Charlie Bilello as Eric Balchunas flags bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam. Redfin data shows home sellers now outnumber buyers by a record margin while contract cancellations hit their highest level since the pandemic. Plus, French bond risk soars, US vs. European natural gas prices diverge, and big banks kick off earnings season. All this and more this week. Average S&P 500 up year of +17.7% vs. average down year of -11.8% since 1950 S&P 500 2026 YTD total return of 15.14%, with earnings contributing 26.69% P/E multiple contraction has subtracted 12.58% while dividends added 1.03% Dotcom peak forward P/Es for Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, and Cisco vs. Google, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft today Exhibit A: Magnificent 7 max drawdowns in 2022 vs. 2026 Bloomberg: S&P 500 at 7,799 trades at 19.2x estimated EPS of $407.70 Charlie Bilello: 10-year Treasury yield at 5.31% and 10-year real yield at 2.95% Bloomberg: 30-day correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 Eric Balchunas: Bond mutual fund outflows picking up steam as yields rise Bloomberg: French 10-year yield premium over German bunds at its highest since 2012 US Henry Hub natural gas is down -20.9% YTD vs. European TTF natural gas up a lot Redfin: Pending home sales cancellations hit 14.5% in September, highest since the pandemic Redfin: Home sellers at a 6-year high of 1.53 million vs. 972,300 buyers Redfin: 57.9% more sellers than buyers, a record surplus Redfin: Pending home sales fall to lowest level since the pandemic freeze JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and ASML headline the week's earnings calendar Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- Oct 5, 202646 min
US Dollar Purchasing Power | Yield Curve Recession Signal Failure? | Worst Treasury Returns in 100 Years | Midterm Election Year Sweet Spot for Equities? | Nike $NKE Chart Looks Like a Popped Bubble
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling returns in 100 years. Charles Schwab data shows Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% year-to-date as of October 1, while Utilities and Consumer Discretionary lag. Are we entering the best part of the presidential cycle? Carson Investment Research says Q4 of the midterm year and Q1 of the pre-election year have historically been among the strongest quarters. Plus, Goldman Sachs on the S&P 500 forward P/E falling back to its 10-year average showing equities are cheaper? Finally, looking at the road up and back on $NKE Nike shares where the chart almost looks like a bubble that has burst. All this and more this week. Charlie Bilello: S&P 500 real total return of 863.7% over the last 30 years US consumer dollar purchasing power down 52.99% over the same period Bilello: Inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) and recessions since 1962 Average lead time of 24 months from first inversion to recession BofA: Worst 10-year rolling Treasury returns in the past 100 years Schwab: Energy up 40% and Tech up 29% YTD vs. the S&P 500 up 12% Utilities down 7% and Consumer Discretionary down 6% year-to-date Carson: Midterm year Q4 has been higher 84.2% of the time since 1950 Pre-election year Q1 averages +7.4% returns and has been higher 94.7% of the time Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 forward P/E has declined to its 10-year average Aggregate vs. median stock valuations: where is the value? Nike $NKE at $33.37: what happened to the swoosh? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- Sep 30, 202639 min
SpaceX Starship Reaches Orbit | S&P 500 Breadth Lowest Since Dot-Com | 59% of S&P 500 Stocks in Bear Markets | Is Narrow Leadership a Warning? | Micron Implied Volatility and Earnings
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research data. Meanwhile, as Don Durrett pointed out on Twitter, 59% of S&P 500 Index constituents are already more than 20% below their all-time highs, and 17% are down more than 50%. Is this a warning sign for the market, or can a handful of leaders keep carrying the index higher? Oh, and checking in on implied volatility for Micron $MU and earnings. All this and more this week, including a look back at 1999-2000 and what concentration risk means for investors. Marlin Capital/Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 breadth lowest since Dot-Com Bubble The gap between the index and the median stock explained 82% of S&P 500 constituents are more than 10% below all-time highs Don Durrett: 59% of S&P 500 stocks are already in a structural bear market 41% are down more than 30% and 26% more than 40% from their highs 17% of constituents are more than 50% below their all-time highs The generals are leading while the soldiers fall behind Comparing today's narrow breadth to the 1999-2000 bubble Is narrow leadership a warning sign or just a concentrated bull market? Implied volatility of Micron $MU $SPCX SpaceX Starship 14 reaches orbit successfully but stock goes lower US Dollar Index is about to become a problem? Us 30 Year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury yield Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
- Sep 23, 202652 min
Semis & Hyperscalers Rocking | AAII Surveys Bearish | Will Fed Cause Yield Curve Inversion? | MLB Baseball ETFs
Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian indicator of bearish readings in the AAII investor surveys. Warren Pies points out correlations between semis and hyperscalers at all-time lows If semis and hyperscalers get correlated and bullish, watch out all-time highs Why the Fed may have just caused a yield curve inversion The Fed mistake of raising rates? Coming soon major league baseball team ETFs to join NHL team ETFs Soft vs hard data contradictions Surveys and oversampling one group or another Contrarian indicators like surves AAII surveys get bearish so what does that mean for markets? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
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