The College System Is About to Collapse?

Over the Fourth of July weekend, my dad, my son, and I went on one of our annual boys club fishing trips.Between catching countless panfish, my dad brought up a topic that instantly transported me back to my teenage years.He told me that I needed to do everything possible to get my son into a prestigious Ivy League university.To him, this was obvious.To me, it was deeply unsettling.I spent most of the conversation trying to explain that artificial intelligence is fundamentally changing the economics of higher education. A degree from an elite university simply does not offer the same value proposition that it did thirty years ago.Unfortunately, that argument went nowhere.Instead, it reminded me of just how much pressure I experienced growing up.Like many Asian kids, I was told that admission into a top university would determine the entire course of my life. My childhood became an endless cycle of SAT preparation, Advanced Placement classes, extracurricular activities, and constant competition.The message was simple.Get into a top university and success would follow.Fail, and your future would be ruined.Even today, decades later, thinking about college admissions still raises my blood pressure.As a father, I now find myself asking a question that my parents never had to consider.What is the purpose of a university in the age of AI?The University Was Never Just One ThingWhen people think about universities, they usually imagine classrooms, professors, lectures, exams, and diplomas.But universities have always been several different institutions bundled together.They conduct research.They train workers.They certify credentials.They provide networking opportunities.They help young adults develop socially.For decades, this bundled model worked remarkably well because every one of these functions reinforced the others.Graduates earned valuable credentials.Employers trusted those credentials.Students accepted enormous tuition costs because those credentials led to high paying white collar careers.The system made economic sense.At least it used to.The Cracks Started Before AIEven before large language models appeared, higher education was already showing signs of stress.Universities competed for students by building luxury dormitories, massive recreation centers, and professional quality athletic facilities.Tuition exploded.Student loan debt exploded.Education increasingly shifted away from intellectual development and toward vocational training.Instead of asking students how to think, universities increasingly focused on preparing students for specific careers.Then AI arrived.AI Breaks The Educational ModelArtificial intelligence does not simply improve education.It undermines many of the assumptions that higher education has relied upon for generations.AI can explain existing knowledge more effectively than many lecturers.AI can tutor students individually.AI can write convincing essays.AI can solve homework assignments.AI can pass many college examinations.This creates uncomfortable questions for me.If AI teaches the lecture, why attend the lecture?If AI writes the essay, what exactly is the essay measuring?If AI passes the exam, what does the diploma actually certify?The college term paper perfectly illustrates this problem.When I was in school, writing a major paper required weeks of research, organization, revision, and critical thinking.The paper itself was never the valuable part.The value came from the thinking required to produce it.Today, large language models can generate that same final product within minutes.The artifact still exists.The learning process does not.Once that happens, the assignment no longer measures what it was designed to measure.Universities Were Really Measuring Human ThinkingFor generations, universities served as society’s measurement system for cognitive professions.A degree signaled that someone possessed enough knowledge and reasoning ability to perform complex white collar work.But AI changes that equation.Many of the cognitive tasks that universities prepare students to perform are rapidly becoming automated.If those jobs disappear, then much of the traditional university model loses its economic foundation.Higher Education Will FragmentI do not believe universities will disappear.I believe they will break apart into specialized institutions.Research institutes may become independent organizations funded by governments, private companies, or nonprofit organizations.Technical credentialing may sh