From the Economist's Chair: Oil in Focus episode 4 - A Fork in the Road

Physical vs. paper disconnect. Crude, diesel and freight markets are signalling stress that futures prices aren't yet capturing — driven by Middle East pipeline disruptions and restricted flows through critical maritime chokepoints. Fragile recovery reversing. A tentative summer rebound in regional exports is losing ground as shipping attacks intensify and instability spreads along key routes. A genuine fork in the road. Either flows are restored and inventories rebuild gradually, or exports fall further — forcing rebalancing through demand destruction: price shocks first, then a broader economic slowdown.