It's a Numbers Game: The Polling Error That Could Decide the 2026 Midterms

On this episode of It’s a Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky is joined by VoteHub Head of Data Science Zachary Donnini to break down the polling misses shaking up the 2026 election cycle. Why did progressive and DSA-aligned candidates dramatically underperform expectations in Wisconsin and Michigan? Ryan and Zach examine the surge in primary turnout, the growing divide between highly educated urban progressives and white working-class voters, and whether pollsters are once again struggling to accurately measure the electorate. They also dig into Black voter turnout, why Democrats are increasingly focused on electability, the limitations facing far-left candidates outside major cities, and what the latest numbers could mean for Republicans trying to hold the House and Senate in November. Could a small polling error in states like Texas, Ohio, Iowa or Maine determine control of Congress? And are the warning signs from the Rust Belt pointing toward a much different 2026 midterm election than the national polls suggest? Ryan and Zach break down the numbers—and what both parties should be watching as November approaches.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.